Here it is! Q1 of 2018 is in the books and sales haven’t improved much. Sales for the month were down 27% compared to March of last year and sales for the quarter are down 18%. There are a couple reasons for this. One is the protracted winter we have been experiencing. I get the sense that people are still hibernating and haven’t really started with any moving plans this year. The second is that there were a number of people that made the decision to move late last year before the new mortgage rules kicked in. There was a substantial push in November and December that we hadn’t seen in previous years. The lack of sales coupled with inventory gains will start putting pressure on prices moving in to the spring. That is unless buyers come out in droves over the next few months.
This is the first time in a long time that we have seen sub par numbers from the detached sector. Sales were down 27% year over year with inventory levels up 32%. Benchmark prices are up 0.7% from March of last year though to $503,800. Months of supply is at 3.6 which still makes this segment balanced and closer to sellers. That could change if the last few months trends carry through the spring though. I am seeing higher supply in the West, City Centre and Northeast districts and lower supply in the Southeast and South. Prices are down year over year 1-2% in the Northeast, North and East. There is still pent up demand for homes under $450K as that part of the market in certain areas are experiencing quick sales and sometimes even multiple offers. Sales have slumped considerably for homes priced $450K-$1M.
Apartment inventory is up 7% to 1,690 units from last year at this time. Sales are down 26% (following the trend of the rest of the market) to 219 units. The Southeast and Northeast has lower months of supply while the North and West districts are over 10 months supply. The segment as a whole sits at 7.7 months supply. Sales are up for $100K-$200K condos. I suspect that there are a number of buyers seeing an opportunity to get in to the market.
Semi-detached homes have also been pacing the market for the last few years and saw a significant dip in sales. This month they were down 28% to 144 units. The segment is down 14% year to date. Inventory levels have skyrocketed (up 50% y/y) and prices are starting to slip – down 1.1% year over year. There are higher inventory levels in the City Centre, South and East and lower supply in the SE (under 3 months).
Row housing saw sales take a hit as well (down 27%) and down 15% year to date. Inventory levels are only 23% higher than last year (941 units). Benchmark prices are up 1.8% since March of last year. Once again, there has been an increase in sales activity for entry level homes ($100K-$200K). There is quite a bit of inventory in the North (over 9 months supply) while the West has the least amount of supply (4.4 months). The Northeast and South districts have seen prices drop over 6% from last year at this time.
- Inventory levels are up 20% year over year
- Prices are down 1% since Q4 of 2017
- 5.8 months supply
- Sales are at the 10 year average for March
- Sales are up Q1 compared to Q1 2017
- Average benchmark price is at $418,467. Above Q4 2017, down 1% Q1 2017
- Prices are 8% below peak levels of 2014
- Benchmark prices sit at $434,600. Up 3% from Q4 2017, up 1% from Q1 2017
- Prices are down 8% from peak levels of 2014
- 6.1 months supply
- Over 10 months supply
- Benchmark prices are at $490,800
- Sales are above the 10 year average for March
- Over 10 months supply
- Benchmark prices are at $386,100
- Sales to new listing ratio is 22%
- Total inventory is 144 units
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